STEADY GROWTH IN JUNE FOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY RETURNS AND RENTAL VALUES – BUT CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH SLOWS
Commercial property rents across the UK grew by 0.2% in June, matching the trend for the year to date despite uncertainty in the build up to the EU referendum, according to the latest CBRE Monthly Index. Capital values grew by 0.1% over the month, a drop on 0.2% in May. But the 0.6% total returns for the month matched returns seen almost every month of the year to date.
In H1 as a whole, rental value growth hit 1.1%, trailing the 1.7% seen in the same period of 2015. Capital values grew by 0.6% for H1 2016, some way shy of the 4.1% in H1 2015. Total returns were also lower, from 6.7% in H1 2015, to 3.0% in H1 2016. This lower return partly reflects an increase in stamp duty land tax in March.
The retail sector experienced rental growth of 0.1% in June, above trend for the year so far, but capital values, which had been flat in April and May, fell by -0.2%. Total returns in the sector were 0.3%, compared with 0.5% the month before. The industrial sector experienced a strong monthly performance, with rents increasing by 0.4%, equal to its best monthly performance in 2016.
The office sector saw rents grow by 0.3% in June, an improvement on the 0.2% of both April and May, and in line with trend so far this year, while capital value growth slowed slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%. London offices mirrored this overall trend; rental values rose by 0.3% (faster than the 0.2% seen in May), and capital value growth slowed from 0.6% (May) to 0.5% (June), producing total returns in June of 0.8%.
The London office market saw some outliers. Rental values in West End & Midtown offices were flat, down from 0.1% growth in May, while capital value growth also cooled to 0.2% from 0.5% in May. Offices in the City of London also experienced muted growth in the month, with rental growth of 0.2% and capital value growth of 0.1%, down from 0.6% and 0.3% respectively in May.
Overall, rents and capital values continued to grow in June, with the industrial sector in particular showing strong growth in a month of significant uncertainty. Clearly, capital value growth has slowed, but occupier demand has remained high across the country, pushing up All Property rental growth as fast as any other month this year.
These figures reflect CBRE valuations carried out in the days immediately following the referendum vote, but July’s monthly index will give a much clearer indication of how monthly-valued assets have been affected by the uncertain environment for commercial property in the aftermath of the Brexit decision. In the meantime, CBRE’s 30 June valuations incorporated a formal Valuation Uncertainty clause.
CBRE UK Monthly Index Snapshot: June 2016
|
|
All Property |
Office |
Retail |
Industrial |
Other |
|
Total Return |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
Capital Value Growth |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
Rental Value Growth |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.3% |