Retail woes bring UK commercial property values down -0.4% in November

At the All Property level, UK commercial property capital values decreased -0.4% in November while rental values fell -0.2%. This is the first-time capital and rental values have both fallen in the same month since October 2012. All UK Property total returns remained positive, pushing year to date total returns to 6.4%.

Retail sector capital values fell -1.9% in November. Retail capital values have fallen -5.3% in 2018 so far. Excluding the period immediately after the EU referendum, November’s results were the biggest decrease in sector capital values since May 2009. Capital values in Rest of UK High Street Shops fell -1.6% over the month while values in the South East were flat. Although Shopping Centre capital values decreased -1.5%, the sector average was pulled down by a -3.0% fall in Retail Warehouse values. Rental values in the Retail sector decreased -0.9% in November, with Retail Warehouses recording a fall of -1.2%.

Capital values in the Office sector increased 0.2% over November, with Central London and Rest of UK Offices performing in line with the sector average. Outer London/M25 Offices recorded capital value growth of 0.3% over the month. Rental value growth for the sector was 0.1% in November. Overall, Central London Office rental values were flat over the month although West End & Midtown values decreased -0.1%. Rental values in the Outer London/M25 and Rest of UK submarkets increased 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

The Industrial sector reported capital value growth of 1.0% in November, bringing year to date capital growth to 11.3%. Rental values for the sector increased 0.6% over the month, with growth in the South East (0.4%) being outpaced by Industrials in the Rest of UK (0.8%).

Robin Honeyman, Research Analyst at CBRE UK
Sharp falls for Retail Warehouses this month resulted in the first negative capital value growth at the All Property level since the EU referendum. The -3.0% decline in capital values over the last month brings the year to date fall for Retail Warehouses to ‑5.7%, still some distance behind Shopping Centres where values have fallen -8.2% in 2018 so far.
Robin Honeyman, Research Analyst at CBRE UK