PRIME UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY RENTS UP 0.7% IN Q2
- The Industrial sector was the top performer for the 7th quarter in a row with a 2.1% increase in prime rents
- High Street Shops show signs of weakness as prime rents decrease -0.5% in Q2
- Prime yields were stable over the quarter
UK prime commercial property rental values increased 0.7% in Q2 2018, according to CBRE’s latest Prime Rent and Yield Monitor. At the All Property level, prime yields were essentially flat, ticking up 1bp to 5.3%. Outperformance by the Industrial sector continues to boost results in both prime rents and yields.
Q2 2018 was the seventh consecutive quarter of Industrial outperformance, with prime rental values increasing 2.1% over the quarter, close to the 2.3% reported in Q1. Unlike previous quarters, the strongest rental growth was not in the London (2.8%), South East (2.0%), or Eastern (2.1%) markets. In Q2 2018, prime North West Industrials outpaced all other submarkets with rental values increasing 5.9%, the largest increase for the region since Q2 1990.
High Street Shop prime rents decreased -0.5% in Q2 2018, the biggest quarterly fall for the sector since Q3 2012. The biggest falls in prime rents were recorded in the South West (-2.5%) and Wales (-2.6%), though almost all regions reported falls. Prime Shopping Centres experienced a 1.0% increase in rents in Q2, while Retail Warehouse prime rents were flat.
Office prime rents increased 0.6% in Q2, up from 0.4% in Q1 2018. Central London Office prime rents decreased slightly, down -0.1% in Q2 thanks to a fall of -0.1% in the West End. For a second quarter, no markets outside Central London reported a decrease in prime rents. Rest of UK (excl. SE and Eastern) prime rents increased 1.7%, while South East and Eastern rents increased 1.1% and 0.9% respectively. Suburban London Offices also reported a 1.2% increase.
Prime yields were largely stable in Q2, moving up just 1bp to 5.3% over the quarter. Stability at the All Property level masked significant divergence at the sector level, betraying investors’ relative preference for Industrials, and lack of interest in Retail.
High Street Shops prime yields rose 16bps over the quarter to reach 5.2%. Prime Shopping Centre yields increased 15bps in Q2, while Retail Warehouses were stable.
Prime Office yields were relatively stable in Q2 falling -1bp. While Central London yields rose 1bp, Rest of UK (excl. SE and Eastern) yields ticked down -10bps in Q2, driven by movements in the North East (-31bps), Yorkshire & Humberside (-23bps) and Scotland (-18bps).
Industrial sector prime yields fell ‑11bps in Q2 2018. London reported the biggest fall in prime Industrial yields, moving in ‑25bps over the quarter. All UK Industrial prime yields have now fallen -85bps over the last 18 months.
All Property results continue to demonstrate the resilience of prime commercial property, although performance continues to be boosted by the Industrial sector. The current run of CVAs in the Retail sector is having a noticeable impact on prime rents and yields, as they have done on performance figures in our UK Monthly Index.